Success with bonus sports betting

It would be reasonable to assume that the way to make money on sports betting is to accurately predict and make the right sports bets at the bookmaker https://ultimatecapper.com/hollywoodbets-hit-english-premier-league-115641/. While this is technically true, you might be surprised that getting a good forecast alone is not enough to learn how to consistently make a profit.

This is because no matter how good you are, you won't always make the right predictions. There are too many variables in sporting events. No one is always right, not even the most successful players in the world.

While it obviously helps to be right as often as possible, an important aspect of betting is actually finding value. Value is a term you will often hear from sports bettors and you must understand it if you want to be successful.

On this page, we explain what value is and how it relates to probability. First of all, with tips on the bonus code at Expekt, we need to explain what your performance is in sports betting, and why it is not enough to just make your predictions more often than you make mistakes.

Your hit rate

When you bet on sports, your match percentage refers to the number of bets you have made in relation to the total number of bets you won. Usually expressed as a percentage. So, for example, if you make 100 bets and 50 of them win, then your percentage of matches will be 50%.

If every bet you made was a winner, then you would have a 100% match rate and obviously you would make a lot of money. However, as we have already established, this is completely unrealistic. You should of course try to be as accurate as the Betway € 100 offer code in your predictions, but a high hit rate does not guarantee long-term profit.

Let's demonstrate this using a hypothetical betting scenario based on the results of tennis matches. For this example, we will use the first day of the 2013 US Open. In early tournament games, it makes sense to expect most of the favorites to win, and therefore you can be sure of one of them. high hit rate if you decide to keep them all.

Let's see what it would be like if you decided to bet on all the favorites in the men's matches instead of the first day.

As you can see, you will have almost 80% hits. At first glance, almost four out of five bets look excellent. however, the average odds for the favorites won that day was 1.25. Based on these odds, if you had $ 10 for each bet, your 15 winnings would be equivalent to a total of $ 187.50 returned (including shares) and $ 37.50 in profit. You would also lose four bets of $ 10 each, for a total loss of $ 2.50.

You only have one loss, and the other day, the same strategy made a small profit. We have not discussed the pros and cons of betting on favorites in tennis matches in this example, and 888Sport and the small coupon are a very small sample of the relevant data anyway. The point we are trying to illustrate with this example is that a high hit rate by itself does not automatically mean that you will make a profit.

In other words, your ranking does not reflect your chances of making money. It simply reflects how many bets you win in relation to how many bets you place. As we've just shown, winning a large percentage of your bets doesn't necessarily mean making money. Your success is not determined by the number of correct predictions, but by the relative quality of the predictions.

This is where value comes into play because it is the value associated with your predictions that determines their quality. We'll take a quick look at what exactly is worth in terms of sports betting, but first let's look at the role that probability plays.

Probability in sports betting

The basic probability is really quite simple. It is a measure of the likelihood that something is going to happen and is usually expressed as a decimal number between 0 and 10, where 0 means impossibility and 1 means certainty. Probability can also be expressed as a percentage, where 0% indicates impossibility and 100% indicates certainty.

In many cases, the probability can be calculated accurately. Take a coin toss, for example. There are only two possible outcomes, and each is equally likely. So the probability of hitting heads is 50%, and the probability of hitting tails is also 50%. The die roll is another good example. There are six possible outcomes, and again, any online promotional code available is equally likely. Thus, the probability of getting any number is always 16.66% (100% divided by six).

Sports betting is not so simple. It is impossible to calculate the exact probability of the outcome of a sporting event because there are so many factors involved. You can apply any statistic you want and take into account all the factors that can affect the outcome, but you simply cannot determine the final exact probability.

All you can do is calculate what you think the odds of a particular outcome are. That's all the bookmakers do. While odds cause them to reflect the relative likelihood of possible outcomes, they are not necessarily completely accurate representations of the probabilities involved. Ultimately, they are based on the bookmaker's judgment of what they think might happen to ensure there is inbuilt margin to match.

Although the bookmakers bet the odds in their favor, their advantage can be overcome. It is not easy to do, but it is certainly possible. Ideally, you really need to know your sport, and you definitely need to understand the perceived likelihood and expected value.

Inferred probability and expected value

In sports betting, implied likelihood is that odds assume the likelihood of an outcome occurring. It is determined by iterating over decimal fractions. Thus, when the Chicago Bears odds of 2.50 are given to win a game, their implied probability of winning is 0.4 or 40%. If they are given a 1.50 odds to win the game, their implied probability of winning is 0.67 or 67%.

To easily convert odds of any format to an implied probability, you can use our odds conversion tool.

The expected value means how much you can expect from the bet. It is a theoretical measure based on the overall probability of winning. Let's illustrate an example of a Chicago Bears bet at 2.50 using expectation.

If you placed a $ 10 bet on bears to win the $ 2.50 odds, then you can get back $ 25 including your bet. Assuming that the implied probability of their winning (which we have already established is 40% based on these odds) is an accurate reflection of their actual probability of winning, you will be paid $ 25 40% of the time you place your bet. You will receive $ 10 60% of the time this bet is lost.